Those who know that the consensus of many centuries has sanctioned the conception that the earth remains at rest in the middle of the heavens as its center, would, I reflected, regard it as an insane pronouncement if I made the opposite assertion that the earth moves.
-Nicolaus Copernicus
In the comments area of Lamentation for Jake, Jake triple-dog-dared me to respond to his wieldy comment. I have no problem accepting this challenge, but it will take several posts. Although Jake brought up several issues, I decided to start with his comments on global warming. He said:
It is apparent that you think that human action has done little to effectively change global warming trends. So, I guess this is another clarification, since I can’t engage in a debate unless I know where you stand. Do you believe that warming trends are temporary, or completely natural, and human action has little or no to do with them? It seems that you regard the widespread concern over global warming that may be attributable to human action to little more than a widespread liberal conspiracy. So do you believe that the wealth of researchers who do believe (or at least purport to believe) that human action has had a significant impact is literally nothing more than a conspiracy and the studies and models are contrived? I can certainly respect taking such an unpopular stance, and arguing it aggressively, but I am trying to figure out just what stance you are taking, so as to discuss it further. As for me, I believe that there is a natural warming trend that would occur regardless of human presence, but I also believe that the effects of masses of greenhouse gasses is multiplying the natural trend in ways that are noticeably affecting our climate. For example, I don’t think that miles of disappearing glaciers in places like Alaska have nothing to do with human presence and the emission of greenhouse gasses, and I do think it is sensible to invest in ways to minimize such emissions. So, all jokes aside, tell me what you actually believe and we can debate the evidence.
To me, consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies. So it is something in which no one believes and to which no one objects.
-Margaret Thatcher
I approach the discourse of global warming alarmism from the perspective of one who is a casual reader of both chaos theory and complexity theory. I believe that warming trends are at best irrelevant. To reductively approach something as broad and dynamic as the climate of an entire planet by analyzing the impact that a single element has on this complex system is an affront to scientific inquiry. To politicize this reductive knowledge is an insult to democracy.
A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.
-Abba Eban
I am not sure who the wealth of researchers are to whom you refer that support your position. I do know that Al Gore likes to claim that there is a consensus in the scientific community that his farcical view of global warming is a transcendental objective truth. However, I have also read the primary source from which Al Gore makes this claim. He quotes a brief essay from the scholarly publication, Science, called Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change. I also know from my own research that like Al Gore, the author of this article, Naomi Oreskes, has no legitimate credentials in climatology. Here is Oreskes’ description of her methodology for this report:
That hypothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abstracts, published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords “climate change” (9).
The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of theconsensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position oncurrent anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensusposition.
So basically she is just doing an analysis of what other climatologists have said based on ill-conceived and arbitrary criteria of judgment. If you want to read about how a credentialed climatologist, Benny Peiser, rips her dumb little, non-peer-reviewed essay apart, you can read what Oreskes got Wrong.
Here are some highlights:
Oreskes’ essay had covered not the entire corpus of scientific papers on climate change over the stated decade but fewer than one-thirteenth of them.
Oreskes’ essay does not state how many of the 928 papers explicitly endorsed her very limited definition of “consensus”. Dr. Peiser found that only 13 of the 1,117 documents – a mere 1% – explicitly endorse the consensus, even in her limited definition.
In any event, it is reprehensible that a learned journal should publish defective material and should then, in effect, expect its readers to surf the Internet to find the truth.
The editors of Science also refused to publish any of the numerous other letters that they had received pointing out the deficiencies in Oreskes’ analysis.
The article where I am pulling this from is five pages long and should be read in its entirety. It was written by Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, who is one of the leading anthropogenic global warming skeptics.
Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled.
-Michael Crichton
I appreciate that you can respect my desire to take an “unpopular” stance and argue it aggressively, but I don’t see any evidence that the global warming alarmismists are interested in open-minded and aggressive debate.
Recently, Viscount Monckton was invited by Republicans to testify before Congress for a hearing on Climate Change where Al Gore would also be presenting his thoroughly discredited ideas. However, the Democrats refused to let Monckton testify. Monckton has challenged Gore to a debate, and Gore has refused in a most cowardly fashion.
If I were a Democrat I would be extremely embarrassed by this fiasco. If your theory of anthropogenic global warming is so solidly supported by scientific evidence, then wouldn’t it be delightful to watch Gore put Monckton in his place? Why are Democrats and liberals stifling this debate, that clearly isn’t over to anyone who even tries to read the scientific literature? Since when did skepticism lose its status among those who purport to be scientists? I always thought that skepticism was the fuel of science? Above all, if you are going to work the public to a frenzy using shoddy science, and Soviet style suppression of dissent, why couldn’t we pick something sexier than the global climate? (Although I do understand that by picking such a boring topic, most of the general public will be too lazy to look into it). Reading scientific literature on climate change is tedious and boring. I can’t blame climatologists for trying to create a little controversy- given the drollness of their profession. I would much prefer a fabricated crisis having to do with astronomy, genetics, carnivorous animals – anything but climate. It would be a lot more fun to follow policy debates about the sun moving into red giant phase, thus causing genetic mutations in polar bears that enables them to endure hot climates, so they migrate south and start ravaging major metropolitan areas. Now that’s good science…fiction.
Stay tuned for my next post:
America’s Next Top Model